MidWeek Commentary

HI Market View Commentary 04-01-2019

HI Market View Commentary 04-01-2019

What I want to talk about today?

What happening in today’s market?=Bullish moving back towards the all time highs

Sometimes you have the perfect backdrop for the market = Waiting on the China Deal, Fed no longer looking to raise rates this year, 2020 +0.25 rate hike and 2021 +0.25, Growing economy, low unemployment

We still have DIS, AAPL, MU, UAA, BIDU, F, FB, FCX, BAC, ZION, AOBC that are still quite a ways away from their all time highs

I will still protect for earnings but it will be slightly OTM put protection

I’m looking to pull the trigger the day the China deal comes to pass I will be adding long puts ATM to protect the one day 3-5 or maybe 6% up the markets might jump too. 

Why don’t I spread trade more in my bigger or clienteles accounts? Because it is NOT money I can afford to lose and neither is it for clientele

It is ok or better to admit your not sure where the market will go than blindly be lead over the bullish cliff

Where will our markets end this week?

Higher

DJIA – Bullish

SPX – Bullish

COMP – Bullish

Where Will the SPX end April 2019?

04-01-2019            2.5%

03-25-2019            0.0%

Earnings:   

Mon:            CALM

Tues:            PLAY

Wed:            LEN

Thur:            

Fri:             

Econ Reports:

Mon:            Retail Sales, Retail Ex-Auto, Business Inventories, ISM Manu Index, Construction Spending,

Tues:            Durable Goods, Durable Ex-trans, Auto, Truck

Wed:            MBA, ADP Employment, ISM Services,

Thur:           Initial, Continuing,   

Fri:               Ave Workweek, Non-Farm Payroll, Private Payroll, Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Consumer Credit

Int’l:

Mon –

Tues –         

Wed –         

Thursday –  

Friday-       

Sunday –       

How am I looking to trade?

Going long for a China Deal and next Earnings which I expect to be better than expected

www.hurleyinvestments.com 

www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite

customerservice@hurleyinvestments.com = Email

Questions???

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/29/what-successful-people-like-bill-gates-and-jeff-bezos-do-on-weekends.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

6 things successful people like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos do on weekends to make their Mondays more productive

Published Sun, Mar 31 2019 • 9:00 AM EDT  Updated 4 Hours Ago

Benjamin Spall, Contributor

There are hundreds of thousands of daily habits you can adopt to stay inspired and boost your productivity, but how do you decide on which ones to focus on?

Over the past five years, I’ve interviewed and studied more than 300 highly accomplished people, from business leaders and university presidents to Olympians and artists, about their daily routines.

Here’s what some of the most successful people do on weekends to make their weekdays easier and more productive:

1. They catch up on sleep

Your body (and brain) won’t perform at its best if you don’t give it proper rest. Of the several hundred people I interviewed, their sleep times average out at seven hours and 29 minutes per night. Tim Cook, Bill Gates, Jack Dorsey and Jeff Bezos all say they get at least seven hours of sleep per night, as well.

But it can be hard to get in seven and a half hours, especially if you have a demanding job that often requires you to stay at the office late. If you find yourself falling behind during the week, use the weekend to catch up.

Don’t take this as an excuse to sleep five hours per night during the week, followed by 12 per night over the weekend, though. Just know that catching up on a few more hours over the weekend is better than nothing.

2. They spend time with their loved ones

If you feel guilty about how little time you’re able to spend with your family and friends Monday through Friday, you’re not alone. Whether you choose to work out with your spouse or take your kids to the park, doing it during the weekend will save you from feeling any guilt during the weekdays.

“On the weekends we have [a nanny] in the morning, so [my wife] Tiff and I go work out Saturday mornings. Then the rest of the weekend it’s just us,” Mark Cuban said at South by Southwest in 2014. “It’s us putting them to bed. It’s us at dinner. We try to be as normal as possible.”

Keep in mind, however, that if you need to get some work done over the weekend, aim to do it Saturday morning so you’re not thinking about it during the rest of the weekend.

3. They strategize on the week ahead

Successful people always strategize on their week ahead so they can get a head start on Monday. This can mean anything from blocking off a whole half-day on the weekend to spending 10 minutes on Sunday evening looking at next week’s calendar and taking notes on what you have coming up. Once Monday morning hits, you’ll be 110 percent ready.

“Saturday I take off. I hike. And then Sunday is reflections, feedback, strategy and getting ready for the rest of the week,” Jack Dorsey tells Brooke Potter, author of“Becoming More Productive: The Secrets of Successful People Revealed.” and Melinda Gates play this ‘crazy’ game to unwind

4. They make time for what energizes them

While successful people make plans to ensure they don’t waste their days, they also make a point to relax — and there are plenty of hours in the weekend to do that. Many will eat breakfast at a more leisurely pace than weekdays allow, curl up on the couch with some books, meditate or work out.

Richard Branson’s Saturday evenings consist of more partying (to each their own, right?). On Sundays, he engages in more physical activities like rock jumping, paddle boarding and boat races, Branson tells the Telegraph.

In a Reddit AMA session in 2014, Gates said he prefers to keep his time off as mellow as possible. “Playing Bridge is a pretty old-fashioned thing in a way that I really like,” he said. “I was watching my daughter ride horses this weekend and that is also a bit old fashioned but fun. I do the dishes every night — other people volunteer but I like the way I do it.”

5. They take care of chores

Chores are important and if you don’t get to them, they’ll pile up and turn into a cloud of anxiety that lingers over your head. Successful people make time to take care of their chores, whether it’s shopping for groceries, doing laundry or taking care of bills, but they don’t let it take over their weekends completely. (If they did, there’d be no time to do any relaxing or reflecting.)

To properly space out your chores, you’ll have to prioritize getting some of them done during the weekdays. It can be as simple as setting aside 15 minutes before bedtime each night to do a little bit of this and a little bit of that. Then, when the weekend hits, schedule at least an hour or two to complete the chores that require more time and attention. You’ll feel much better and in control once you’ve finished them.

6. They set aside alone time and reflect

Reflection and alone time is healthy for your mind and body. It will also help you to better reach your goals. Successful people use the weekend to reflect or meditate on things that are important to them (how can they make more time for those things?), things that have been bothering them (what are some good solutions?) and their career (how can they improve their skills and performance?).

Harvard study found that people who spent 15 minutes at the end of the day reflecting about lessons they learned performed 23 percent better compared to those who didn’t. Other studies have found that self-reflection can help you become a happier, more productive and less burned out person. Even if you struggle with the idea of self-reflection, at least try doing it on the weekends. It won’t be long before you start to see some of the benefits.

Benjamin Spall is the co-author of “My Morning Routine,”which was named as one of Amazon’s best business books of 2018 and a Financial Times book of the month. He has written for the New York Times, New York Observer, Quartz, Entrepreneur, Business Insider and more.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/who-is-winning-trump-s-trade-war-with-china-so-far-it-s-mexico

U.S. and China Got Into a Trade War and Mexico Won

America’s imports from Mexico surge the most in seven years as Trump’s policies shift supply chains By  Matthew Townsend  and  Eric Martin

March 27, 2019, 4:00 AM MDT

The Trump Administration’s trade war with China has turned out to be a windfall for another country the president frequently berates: Mexico.

Consider Fuling Global Inc., a Chinese maker of plastic utensils that developed a lucrative business making paper cups and straws for U.S. restaurants. But President Trump upended all that with tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, including paper products. So the company found an alternative, opening a $4 million factory in Monterrey, Mexico, that will soon begin shipping millions of paper straws across the border.

“We had to look for other ways to do business,’” said Fuling Chief Financial Officer Gilbert Lee. The move means the Wenling, China-based company will avoid the tariffs and make up for pricier Mexican labor with lower shipping costs. “Mexico is a very logical and advantageous location for us.”

Fuling isn’t alone. Mexico has seen big gains in shipments to the U.S. in categories where competing Chinese goods were hit with tariffs, everything from poster board to air conditioner parts. In all, U.S. imports of goods from Mexico surged 10 percent to almost $350 billion last year, the fastest growth in seven years. That helped widen America’s trade deficit with Mexico by 15 percent to more than $80 billion. Meanwhile, the growth in shipments from China slowed by about a third.

Mexico Picks Up Exports Where China Slips

Change in share of U.S. total imports, 2017-18 (in percentage points)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Mexico’s bonanza underscores the difficulty in trying to win a trade war where companies can shift production or find new sources to avoid tariffs. Despite Trump’s vow to reduce it, the U.S. trade deficit for goods globally hit a record $891 billion last year as tax cuts boosted demand for imports and retaliatory tariffs weighed on American exports. Given Trump’s early attacks on Mexico for taking U.S. jobs, it’s an ironic turn to observers such as factory consultant Alan Russell.

“It’s a case of unintended consequences,” said Russell, chief executive officer of Tecma Group, an El Paso, Texas firm that helps companies open and run factories in Mexico. Interest has never been this high in his 35 years in the industry, he says. “Any company manufacturing in China has had a wake-up call.”

Much of the shift in companies sourcing from Mexico instead of China centers on low value-added items where substitution is easier, according to Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China. For example, Taskmaster Components has for almost 20 years imported large wheels and tires from China, and assembled them for companies making trailers and recreational vehicles. But tariffs on many of those products pushed the Mount Pleasant, Texas-based company to go hunting for new sourcing. That list now includes Mexico, where it wants to invest in a factory. The U.S. isn’t being considered because Taskmaster hasn’t found a willing partner among the few remaining American manufacturers.

“A lot of people are moving production down there,” said Amanda Walker, the firm’s chief operating officer. The close proximity, access to ports and an educated workforce make “everything about Mexico attractive.”

Trade Windfall

U.S. imports of Mexican goods rose 10% in 2018, most in seven years

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Mexico’s gain is evident across a diverse span of sectors. After the U.S. levied tariffs on metal ores and their byproducts, Mexico’s exports to America more than doubled, while China’s sank by a quarter. Tariffs on aluminum products helped wipe out almost $500 million in imports from China. Mexico saw a 20 percent increase in sales to the U.S.

The trade war also made the U.S. more reliant on produce from Mexico, which was already the biggest source of vegetables like cauliflower, carrots and onions. In one stark example, peeled garlic cloves from China sank by almost a quarter after receiving tariffs while Mexican exports rose 54 percent.

Even small businesses in Mexico benefited. After the U.S. put 10 percent tariffs on silk yarn, one of China’s iconic exports, Mexico’s shipments to the U.S. jumped from basically nothing, just $5,500 in 2017, to $1.6 million last year. China’s imports of knitted and crocheted fabrics fell by about $3 million, almost the exact amount Mexican imports rose.

Trump’s tariffs especially targeted the auto supply chain, which had already been expanding in Mexico and has continued to gain under Trump’s policies. One example: U.S. imports of Mexican passenger vehicles with gasoline engines jumped 17 percent to $32.6 billion, while shipments from China, Germany and Canada all declined.

Even before Trump’s presidency, Mexico was becoming more competitive with China, in part due to rising Chinese labor rates and Mexico’s proximity to the U.S., especially important in the e-commerce era of quick shipping.

To be sure, a lot was happening last year other than the tariffs that could have played a part in boosting Mexican exports. Some companies may have upped orders to beat Trump’s threat to dismantle the North American Free Trade Agreement; he instead signed a renegotiated deal in November. Fluctuations in the value of the dollar and Trump’s global steel tariffs might have also played a role.

The Mexico bump could be short-lived if the U.S. and China strike their own trade deal, reducing the impetus to move production to Mexico. Another headwind might be new leftist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has rattled investors’ confidence by canceling a $13 billion airport after it was already one third built and inspiring a more aggressive labor movement, including factory strikes.

But for now, paper-straw maker Fuling Global is all in. It will begin production in Monterrey by July and if all goes well, Fuling will shift more work to Mexico and possibly start selling to the local market and then to South America.

“Changes spur opportunities,” said Lee, Fuling’s CFO. “It’s just a matter of how you deal with it.”

 

Treasury Tensions: Inverted Yield Curve Keeps Mood on Wall Street Subdued

9:30am ET 3/28/2019 6 min read

(Thursday Market Open) As U.S.-China trade talks drag on, the drumbeat of lackluster economic news also continues as fresh data showed the U.S. economy expanded less than originally thought in the last quarter of 2018 and the inverted yield curve appears to be keeping investors on edge.

Trade negotiations between the United States and China seemed to come back into focus Thursday morning, as Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are in Beijing for a fresh round of talks between the world’s two largest economies. Reuters reported that China has made unprecedented proposals on issues including forced technology transfer but that there wasn’t a definite timetable for a deal.

On the economic data front, the U.S. government said the economy expanded less than previously thought in the final quarter of last year, with its third estimate of Q4 GDP showing an annualized rate of increase of 2.2% compared with a previous reading of 2.6%. A Briefing.com consensus had expected a reading of 2.5%.

Of course, it might also be on investors’ minds what GDP ends up being in this quarter, which closes out at the end of the week. We won’t find out until late next month, but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator for Q1, updated yesterday, rose to 1.5% from the previous 1.3% after news Wednesday that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in January, increasing its estimate of the contribution of net exports to Q1 real GDP growth.

The mood on Wall Street overall seemed pessimistic as U.S. stock trading on Wednesday appeared to be dominated by worries about where the U.S. economy is headed, as indicated by the U.S. Treasury market.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was below 2.4% as well as being below the yield on the 3-month Treasury on Wednesday, continuing a pattern – called an inversion – that has preceded recessions in the past.

Although it was mostly red across the board, the market’s losses weren’t particularly large, perhaps indicating that there is room to quibble about how solid the link is between an inverted yield curve and a contraction in the economy.

While lower rates in the future are typically associated with a slowing economy, according to public comments from former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, they may be a sign that the economy could use an interest rate cut rather than indicating a looming recession.

With the prospect of relatively low interest rates lasting well into the future and potentially weighing on bank profitability, you might think that bank shares would be among the worst performers of the day. But on Wednesday, losses in the Financials sector were about in the middle of the pack.

Airlines Flying High

Although it didn’t rise by much, the S&P 500 Industrials sector was the day’s lone gainer Wednesday. Airlines including American Airlines (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Continental (UAL) were among the best performing stocks in the group, along with plane manufacturer Boeing (BA).

It appears that investors were encouraged by indications from LUV, the largest operator of the BA 737 Max, that the impact from grounding the planes after two fatal crashes wouldn’t be as bad as some investors had thought, according to a Bloomberg report. Meanwhile, BA said it had improved its automated flight control system software.

Although many of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) components were lower Wednesday, all of Dow Jones Transportation Average ($DJT) stocks were higher. The transportation average is often considered a bellwether for economic health because if airlines, rail companies, trucking firms and parcel services are humming along then commerce probably is too. So with strength in the $DJT, the economy may not be as bad off as some market watchers might be thinking.

In other good news for transportation companies, U.S. oil prices dropped on news that crude inventories in the nation rose by 2.8 million barrels when a decrease had been expected. 

Fuel prices are a key input cost for airlines, rail companies and couriers such as FedEx (FDX), and a dip in prices would be a welcome relief for them as well as for everyday drivers spending money at the pump. But despite Wednesday’s drop, the U.S. oil price, around $60 a barrel, remains the highest it’s been since early November amid OPEC cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.

Lower oil prices are a double-edged sword, as they can indicate a sluggish economy or expectations that global economic growth could falter. But even with such an outlook, crude may have some support as we’re heading into what’s seasonally a strong time for crude demand.

Elastic Demand

After the market closed Wednesday, Lululemon (LULU) reported results that beat expectations on both top and bottom lines and said its same-store sales rose 16% in the quarter that included the holiday season. The retailer’s shares were up around 14% in premarket trading this morning.

From a consumer health standpoint, the better-than-expected results offer a counterpoint to data earlier in the week that showed consumer confidence for March unexpectedly fell. According to the Conference Board, its index of consumer confidence dropped to 124.1 from 131.4 in February. A Briefing.com consensus had expected a reading of 132.

Of course, LULU’s reporting period and the Conference Board numbers are for different time frames, and we’ll have to wait and see how the company and other retailers fare during the current quarter and to what extent the worries on Wall Street might trickle down to Main Street.

But it is encouraging that the LULU reporting period encompassed the end of last year, when the stock market was tanking. With shares on a much better footing now, it could be interesting to see how the consumer confidence figures translate into actual spending at the cash register or keyboard.

Yield Faltering: The yield on the 10-year Treasury continued to fall Wednesday amid economic growth worries. The benchmark was also below the yield on the 3-month Treasury, a so-called “inversion” that has worried many about the possibility of a recession.Data Source: Cboe Global Markets. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.  

Rate Cut on the Horizon? Stephen Moore, an economist who may get nominated by President Trump to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, made some waves Wednesday because of comments in an interview with The New York Times that the central bank should cut rates by half a percentage point. What Moore said doesn’t seem too far removed from what some investors appear to be thinking. The CME’s FedWatch tool on Wednesday was projecting a nearly 35% chance that the Fed could cut rates by 50 basis points (or half a percentage point) before the end of the year. There was an almost 75% chance of at least one rate cut, or 25 basis points. That’s quite a contrast from just a month ago, when futures only indicated about a 15% chance of any rate cut at all this year, and probably reflects global growth worries that accelerated recently, along with the Fed’s dovish meeting outcome. The Fed’s next meeting is in May, and chances of a rate cut then are only seen at 8%, according to CME futures prices on Wednesday. So if anything does happen, it’s likely to be further out in the year.

Buying and Holding: Many financial advisors recommend a buy-and-hold approach for everyday investors rather than trying to time the market. With all the worry about whether the inverted yield curve signals a recession or not, it might be a good time to remind yourself of that. “Even though a recession is just a matter of time, attempting to time one will likely frustrate more investors than reward them,” according to investment research firm CFRA. And of course there’s the adage from legendary investor Peter Lynch: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”

Window Dressing: While much attention has been paid to the inverted yield curve on top of worries about slowing global growth and corporate earnings, there may also another factor behind the pressure on the market of late. “It is normal for digestive declines to follow share-price surges, like the 21% advance seen by the S&P 500 since December 24,” CFRA said in a note Wednesday.  “Yet we see no recession on the horizon and think that end-of-quarter window dressing should be added to the lengthening list of factors deserving of blame.” Still, the firm notes that yield curves have typically inverted around a year before recessions since 1960, and three of four economic recessions were preceded by earnings recessions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/26/money-mistakes-millionaires-like-warren-buffett-bill-gates-google-eric-schmidt-never-make.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

7 money mistakes millionaires like Warren Buffett and Bill Gates never, ever make—that average people do all the time

Published Tue, Mar 26 2019 • 12:36 PM EDT  Updated Wed, Mar 27 2019 • 12:02 PM EDT

Elle Kaplan, Contributor

There are two things we know for certain about millionaires: They know exactly where their money is going, and they know exactly what not to do with it.

If you want to reach millionaire status, the single most important thing you can do is to learn from the likes of the super wealthy, from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates to Google’s ex-CEO Eric Schmidt to Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett.

Here are seven things you’ll never find the world’s richest people doing, and how you can adopt their healthy financial habits into your own life:

1. They don’t waste money on fees

Rich people know that fees are a waste of time (and money, of course), so the right course of action is to pay their bills on time. They take advantage of features like autopay to avoid late charges for everything from utilities to mortgage to credit card bills.

They’re also mindful of bank fees. Many banks will charge you extra money for their services, and you might not even be aware of it. Some of the bigger banks, for example, will charge you anywhere from $12 to $15 unless you meet a specific set of requirements, like maintaining a certain average balance in your account. Make it a habit to check your monthly statements for these hidden charges.

2. They don’t ignore their credit score

Your credit score plays a leading role in determining your interest rates. A high credit score can earn you a low interest rate and save you thousands of dollars in interest over the life of a loan. A low score may prevent you from getting a loan if you ever need one.

Wealthy people know this and they never, ever ignore their credit score. They are constantly checking their score and do their best to keep it pristine. There are a number of apps that allow you to check your score for free and even try to help you boost it. Monitor your score reports on a monthly basis, keep your debt levels low and pay your bills on time. explain his hiring process

3. They don’t spend impulsively

We see millionaires drop a ton of cash on ridiculous things all the time (i.e. Cardi B’s $500,000 Lamborghini), but the smart ones are surprisingly frugal. Bill Gates wears a $10 watchWarren Buffett eats the same thing for breakfast at McDonald’s every day — and it never costs more than $3.17Mark Zuckerberg drives a manual transmission Volkswagen.

“Rich people don’t get rich by spending it all. They know better than anyone that by being careful shoppers they can achieve a lifestyle several rungs up the income ladder,” notes market researcher Pam Danziger. Impulse spending leads to waste, overspending and debt — three things successful people avoid.

4. They don’t fall for marketing ploys

Marketing plots are everywhere, and rich people avoid falling for them by comparison shopping. They appreciate value, but they also look at the big picture and always weigh the benefits of quality versus cost.

To adopt the same habit, do your research and consider your bottom line before making a purchase, big or small. By purchasing a more expensive yet well-made item that you’ll use for years, you can save yourself the time and money of having to repair or replace a poorly made item.

5. They don’t try to beat the market

Billionaire and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt says that short-term trading (a.k.a. buying or selling stocks based on daily market movements) won’t make you rich. He always thinks long-term and never tries to beat the market.

Warren Buffett also insists on using the long-term strategy. A few days after he released Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter to shareholders earlier this year, the billionaire appeared on television at CNBC and explained why longer-term investment strategies like index funds still stands the test of time.

6. They don’t have just one source of income

Having multiple streams of income will help you to generate more money, and rich people never rely on just one source of income. Consider turning your spare car into a ride-sharing business, taking on freelance work, becoming a tutor or writing about areas of expertise.

“When I got ‘The Tonight Show,’ I always made sure I did 150 [comedy show] gigs a year so I never had to touch the principal,” comedian and television host Jay Leno told CNBC. “I’ve never touched a dime of my ‘Tonight Show’ money. Ever. I always had two incomes. I’d bank one and I’d spend one.”

7. They don’t keep up with the Joneses

According to a 2017 report by employment website CareerBuilder, 78 percent of American workers live paycheck to paycheck. Wealthy people know that the idea of well-lived life is subjective. Buffett never owned an iPhone until he received one as a gift, but “I’m not using it,” he told CNBC.

Your friends, neighbors or co-workers might have the latest “must-have” tech gadget, but that doesn’t mean you need one, too. There’s a solid chance the Joneses can’t actually afford their lifestyle. Your personal reality is more important than public perception. Decide what you want your life to look like now — and in the future. Don’t let anyone else make that decision for you.

Elle Kaplan is the founder and CEO of LexION Capital, a fiduciary wealth management firm in New York City serving high-net-worth individuals. She is also the chief investment officer and founder of LexION Alpha.

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