HI Financial Services Commentary 04-26-2016
AAPL Stock Sucks big time!!! Hurley Investments Client
186 S&P 500 Earnings this week
Some big names were today and ALL seemed to disappoint – WYNN, TWTR, AAPL, BWLD, CMG,
Right now Futures for DJIA – 33 S&P -4.25 and NAS 42.25
$1.90 vs est $2.00 per share earnings
“Diluted” Share total revenues $50.56 vs est $51.97
That ten cent earnings miss on outstanding shares = 277 Million Dollars
10.25 M Ipads vs est 10.1 M
4 M Macs
6B in the services sector = iWatches, iPay
Iphone 51.2M vs est 50.3 M
Next Quarter as they prepare for the iPhone 7 41-43 B in revenue vs est 47B
AAPL will give an increase of 50 Billion capital give back – Means dividend and stock buybacks
What about the dividend yield – When the stock performs poorly your dividend yield increases because the stock loses value
4% yield on $100 = $4
When the stock loses 10% the yield is now different 4/new $90 stock price = 4.4% yield now on the same “Real” dollar dividend amount
MOD – I think that shows the central banks are supporting the market…lousy earnings, lousy economy, and almost at the highs of the markets
Still don’t think the market is over-valued?
Here’s a 4 year chart of the S&P 500 vs the S&P 500 GAAP earnings.
Earnings are flat over the last 4 years but the market is up 50%.
Everything is great…. Buy stocks.
Our Economy is in trouble even IF it is the best house on the block. BUT it can’t end well for those countries who are so in debt that the revenues barely cover the interest owed on the debt
What’s happening this week and why?
New Home Sales 511 vs est 522
Durable Goods 0.8 vs est 1.7
Durable Goods ex-trans -0.2 vs est 0.5
Case Shiller home Prices 5.4 vs est 5.6
Consumer Confidence 94.2 vs est 96.2
Where will our market end this week?
Down 1% from here
DJIA – Bullish but with the run what is the expectation? PULLBACK
SPX – Bullish but with the run what is the expectation? PULLBACK
COMP – Bullish just by as bit but heading down tomorrow most likely
Where Will the SPX end April 2016?
What is on tap for the rest of the week?=
Tues: MMM, AFL, AKS, T, CMG, GLW, EBAY, LMT, ODP, PG, SVU, TMUS, AAPL, FCX, X, WYNN, WHR, AAPL
Wed: ADT, BSX, FSLR, HES, IP, NE, TXN, BA, FB, CLDX, PYPL,
Thur: AMGN, BMY, CAB, CAH, CELG, LNG, CME, CL, COP, DNKN, FLS, GRPN, LNKD, MA, PPL, RTN, BIDU, F,
Fri: AMC, CVX, XOM, KBR, MNST, PSX, VFC
Tues: Durable Goods, Durable ex-trans, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence
Wed: MBA, Crude, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Rate Decision
Thur: Initial, Continuing Claims, GDP-Adv, GDP Deflator,
Fri: Employment Cost Index, PCE Prices, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment
Wed – JP: BOJ Announcement, All Industry Index, Unemployment Rate, Household Spending, Industrial Production, Retail Sales
Thursday – EMU: EC Economic Sentiment
Friday – FR:EMU: GDP Flash , EMU: HICP Flash, DE: Retail Sales.
How I am looking to trade?
Prepared for earnings and thinking of rolling up the Long Puts to protect at a higher strike price
Rolled Protection on DIS to 105 June Strike from 97.50 June Strike cost $2.85 ish
Rolled F from 12.75 to 13.50 and 13.75
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
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