HI Financial Services Commentary 06-13-2017
What will happen to the typical June Swoon this year?
Apparently Not and the buy the dippers are back but they are different.
How are they different? Not in FANG – Facebook, AAPL, NVDA, NFLX, GOOG, ALPHABET, AMZN
Rotating out of big tech into boring and financials
Boring – PG, GE,
I don’t just throw protection on because of one bad day
I need reasons – breaking of the 50 SMA, Technical crossovers, macro news, specific news events ie…CFO, CEO change
What do two consecutives down or up days do to spreads? Quick profits or real quick losses – Lance
Big value changes on swings in the market, could get you out of the trade on limit loss orders
Things happen and one day or even one week shouldn’t “destroy” a portfolio
IT CAN ruin a position, spread trade or stop limits BUT should not ruin a whole portfolio
Things that hurt you in one day – upgrades, downgrades, black swan events, The Fed, crazy news, gaps,
Crazy event if they are ruining a portfolio you are probably over leveraged in some regard
What’s happening this week and why?
Fear of another rate hike tomorrow
CNN Comey, Session or open hearings about possible classified or illegal government officials activities
Rotation and profit taking from Tech and/or FANG
Where will our market end this week?
DJIA – Bullish
SPX – Hit the RSI Overbought limit line Bullish
COMP – Overbought bullish
Where Will the SPX end June 2017?
What is on tap for the rest of the week?=
Thur: KR, FNSR
Tues: PPI, Core PPI
Wed: MBA, CPI, Core CPI, Retail Sales, Retail ex-auto, FOMC Rate Decision
Thur: Initial, Continuing Claims, Phil Fed, Import, Export, Empire Manufacturing, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production
Fri: Housing Starts, Building Permits, Michigan Sentiment
Tues – CN: Industrial Production, Retail Sales,
Sunday – JP: Merchandise Trade, CN: House Price Index
How I am looking to trade?
VIX at 12 to start to try to sell some premium
Looking to sell credit for a sideways moving market – bull puts, short puts and little credit high short calls
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
A ‘horrendous storm’ is set to hit stocks, and may drag the S&P down 34%, David Stockman says
President Reagan’s OMB director predicts a 34 percent drop in the S&P 500 could be months away.
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/104518226
Here’s why oil prices could drop to $30 a barrel again: Fesharaki
A leading global energy market academic warns crude prices could sink back to $30 a barrel if OPEC fails to make additional cuts to production.
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/104527813
Death of the human investor: Just 10% of trading is regular stock picking, JPMorgan estimates
By trade volume, machines and exchange-traded funds are leaving the traditional stock picker in the dust.
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/104527239