HI Financial Services
Life is what
happens when we are busy making other plans – John Lennon
so far this week?
We had our bounce back last week and for the first two days
this week we are down. We are down about
one hundred points and I guess we need a bit of a pause. Nothing has changed from last week but
markets don’t head straight up every day.
A pause or a flat week would be a good thing in my opinion. I didn’t expect a down couple of days but I
do not see technical crossovers on most of the stocks I trade. This is a great opportunity to allow stocks a
bit of movement down just like you allow stocks to move up. It is OK for stocks to go down a little. Anything that moves straight up will most
likely head straight down soon enough.
Where will our market
end this week?
It would not surprise me to see the market flat for the week. That means we will probably have a big up day
that is 100 points or more. We then will
have a 50 point down day and up day so we end up very close to where we ended
the week last Friday. After Wednesday we
really don’t have any market moving economic news so maybe we will regain the
losses at the end of the week.
Pay attention to international news, especially China on
Wednesday. International news may also move
our markets. To have a flat to slightly
up or down week is a good thing.
Professionally I would call it building a based. I want to see a flat week. I want to see the market set a level of
support to build for the next big run up.
I really don’t want to see the market just run up. It isn’t healthy because the market runs out
of buyers and the only thing to do is sell off and sell off significantly. Why sell off significantly? Because human nature dictates two emotional
decisions. I don’t want to sell because
it will come back and we sell at a break even or a small loss. Second, I missed the run so I will wait until
it comes back to “try” to buy at the price before it ran up so high.
DJIA – Looking for a bounce
off the 50 SMA. We clearly hit the top
at 16,400 ish and we need a catalyst to break above
SPX – Right now we are in no man’s land again. Stuck between 1850 and 1900 with no catalyst
to move to test the round number of 1900.
COMP – Still moving
higher but we hit the top part of our range.
Maybe test the 50 day SMA and then make another jump higher.
Where Will the SPX end March
03-04-2014 = I am
calling the 1900 that I was calling last month.
Earnings are basically in so it only comes down to news. Mid-month we have a FOMC meeting and that
will make or break the gains for the month.
What is on tap for the rest
of the week?=
AEO, DKS, MW
HTZ, KKD, MTN, ARO, DG, SEAS
ARO, DG, GCO, USEG, ZUMZ
Inventories, JOLTS Job Openings,
Wed: MBA, Treasury
Thur: Initial Claims,
Continuing Claims, Retail Sales, Retail ex-auto, Import, Export, Business
PPI, Core PPI, Mich Sentiment
Wed – JP:
CGPI, Tertiary Index
Thurs – CN: Industrial
Production, Retail Sales
Friday – JP: BOJ Minutes
How I am looking to
What a rough week last
week to sit thru volatility. It was a
very rough Monday to sit on my hands. I
choose to use it as a buying opportunity in Visa to add shares to a couple of
hundred shares in some accounts.
Protection from the last earning season has still been in play. I choose to add short puts to lower the cost
of my protection that expires in April I’ve “chased” stocks with short puts on
NVDA, DIS, SNDK, TSLA and I have not yet
taken them off.
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