HI Financial Services Mid-Week 03-25-2014
Bankers don’t have talent – just lots of borrowed money –
What has been happening
so far this week?
What a wild week we are having. Last week was quadruple witching and it looks
like some funds booked profits for the quarter.
This week we have hedge funds that will take quarterly profits. In real life the market wants to stay where
it is and make another leg up. Next week
will be really important to see buying for the start of the next quarter. Remember we still have stimulus. Even with QE ending we will still have half
as much of the stimulus we had last year.
YES, we are still being “artificially inflated” in our economy and stock
Now I had a very interesting conversation with an
individual who I would deem exceptionally smart. In fact his accomplishments academically make
me feel one inch tall. Our conversation
comes down to technical analysis and when positions should be added on taken
off. As we spoke I realized I need to
add another blog going over my thoughts.
The key points I took from the conversation comes down to these ideas:
Trade to your methodology
I like a longer term view of technical analysis to allow
for less mistakes
Allow 2 to 4 days for confirmation to save money
MACD, Support, and Resistance levels are NOT consistent
Someone will know more than I do and have valid points at
USE what makes you the most money
Don’t forget Technical, Fundamental and Sentimental
analysis are a single three legged stool
Where will our market
end this week?
I still feel we are primed to make a run at new highs. I would not be giving you any facts to
justify movement this week. For that
reason I can’t say nor do I have an idea where the market is going to end. I’ve done pretty well with my predictions
this year and I would hate to think I can truly outguess the market. What I do know is economic and headline news
will most likely dominate market direction
DJIA – This is a more
complicated chart than I usually use.
Bouncing along the RSI still in a bullish mode. Above the 50 SMA which is bullish as well as
the Parabolic SAR (little dots). The
MACD is bearish looking to turn bullish and the Williams %R lets us know we are
approaching over bought territory. Talk
about paralysis by over analysis!
SPX – The S&P 500 mirrors the DJIA except the Williams
%R lets us know there is still plenty of upside potential
COMP – Now the Nasdaq
bounced above the upper limit trend line.
We now have a Bearish RSI crossing below the median line. We are testing the 50 SMA with the Parabolic
SAR suggesting downside pressure.
Where Will the SPX end March
03-25-2014 = I do not
think we are going to 1900 on the SPX.
We do not seem to have a catalyst.
I still think the market is building a base and the run will most like
start in April or May with Earnings season.
03-18-2014 = I still believe we are going to test 1900 on
SPX. Yellen will set the stage to test
highs on all three main indexes. Yes I
think nothing has changed so the trend will continue to be my friend.
03-04-2014 = I am
calling the 1900 that I was calling last month.
Earnings are basically in so it only comes down to news. Mid-month we have a FOMC meeting and that
will make or break the gains for the month.
What is on tap for the
rest of the week?=
CCL, FIVE, PVH, SCS, WAG
CAN, GME, RHT, WGO
Tues: FHFA Home
Prices, Case-Shiller, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed,
Wed: MBA, Durable
Goods, Durable ex-trans, PMI Services
Thur: Initial Claims, GDP,
GDP Deflator, Pending Home Sales,
Personal Income, Personal Spending, Michigan Sentiment
Wed – EMU:
M3 Money Supply,
Friday – FR: GB: GDP,
EMU: EC Economic Sentiment
Sunday – JP: PMI
Manufacturing, Industrial Production
How I am looking to
Added short calls for a
little of downside protection on positions that weren’t confirmed bullish like
DIS, V, FB. I’ve added full collar on
TSLA, SCTY, I also added ATM 160 April
Short calls for $10.25 credit to make up almost dollar for dollar to the
downside. With higher volatility I want
to protect by not overpaying for put protection.
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