HI Financial Services Mid-Week Commentary 05-12-2015
Comments in general:
Lack of leadership in the stock market
I don’t see fear in the VIX or in the orderly selling I’ve seen over the last month
I want to be NON-Directional – Trades are Collar trade, Straddle/Strangle, Ratio Spreads
Protect yourself in Protective puts or collar trades:
BIDU: It the Money Protective Puts that made $1.55 today when the stock lost $0.865 !!!! Love it when volatility makes more on the way down than the stock loses. I have been able to make up almost $20 a share on the way down which will allow me to add additional shares on options expiration Friday !!!
What’s happening this week and why?
China rate decrease of 25 basis points
Greece mad an IMF payment one day early totaling 750 Million Euros !!
Oil is still rising for the year
Jolts Job openings 4.994 M vs est 5.133 M
Treasury Budget 157.0 B vs est 155.0 B
Where will our market end this week?
Our markets to rebound end finish higher
DJIA – Technically bullish holding the 50 SMA but in a range – Upside of 18200 downside of 17770 to 17600
SPX – We have two indicators that are flat and indecisive!!!
COMP – Technically bearish with two bearish indicators and the RSI laying on the median line
Where Will the SPX end May 2015?
05-12-2015 Sell in May and go away down 3 to 6% 2050 level
05-05-2015 Sell in May and go away down 3 to 6% 2050 level
04-28-2015 Sell in May and go away down 3 to 6% 2050 level
What is on tap for the rest of the week?=
Tues: GDDY, Z
Wed: DDS, CTRP, JCP, NTES, RL, SHAK, M
Thur: AMAT, LOCO, KSS, JACK, LWN,
Tues: Jolts, Treasury Budget
Wed: MBA, Crude, Export, Import, Retail sales, Retail ex-auto, Business Inventories
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, PPI, Core PPI
Fri: Empire Manufacturing, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Mich Sentiment, Net long term TIC Flows
Tues – CN: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
Wed – FR:DE:EMU GDP Flash EMU:Industrial Production, ECB Minutes
Thurs – JP: PPI
Sunday – JP: Tertiary Index
How I am looking to trade?
Collars and Protective puts right now
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